With great power comes great responsibility: A report from the frontier of armed conflict forecasting

Posted on Posted in Analysis, Civil Wars, Global, International Politics, Lovisa Mickelsson, Pax et Bellum Views, Remco Jansen

Authors: Remco Bastiaan Jansen and Lovisa Mickelsson*   Forecasting violent political crises such as the devastating resource wars of the 1990s or the ongoing conflict in Syria is a dream to researchers and policy-makers. What if we could indeed anticipate these crises; could we save people from the horrors of war? Can data help bring […]

Could Brexit summon the ghosts of the Troubles?

Posted on Posted in Alessandro Fava, Civil Wars, Europe, International Politics, Opinions, Pax et Bellum Views

Author: Alessandro Fava Brexit will be one of the most important political events in Europe after the end of the Cold War. The changes for the United Kingdom and the European Union will be massive. Moreover, the United Kingdom will also face challenges from the inside coming from the peripheral regions that voted “Remain”. Northern […]

A Dream of Ruling for A Billion Years Cut Short at 22 Years

Posted on Posted in Civil Wars, International Politics, Maria Osula, Opinions, Pax et Bellum Views, Sub-Saharan Africa

Author: Maria Osula On December 1, 2016, the people of The Gambia went to the polls to exercise their constitutional right to vote resulting in the end of President Yahya Jammeh’s 22-year authoritarian regime. What was uncommon of long serving African leaders was that Jammeh accepted defeat and agreed to step down creating space for […]

From regime change to authoritarian stability? The Trump presidency and the Syrian Civil War

Posted on Posted in Americas, Analysis, Aron Woonink, Civil Wars, International Politics, Middle East and North Africa, Opinions, Pax et Bellum Views

Originally published December 17, 2016 Author: Aron Woonink* Many jars of ink have been spilt on Donald Trump’s election last month. Every spectator, whether they’re journalists, policymakers or ordinary citizens, wonders what this remarkable figure’s victory will mean for the US and the rest of the world. Will Muslims be banned from entering the US? […]

Brexit, Trump and right-wing movements in Europe – Explaining identity politics

Posted on Posted in Analysis, Europe, International Politics, Pax et Bellum Views, Shawn Davies, Suna Voss

Originally published December 11, 2016 Authors:  Suna J. Voss and Shawn Davies* Identity politics is in the news. While identity might be a construct, as the constructivist argument goes, attempts to transcend one identity generally lead into the construction of another. What does this mean for politics and society? The ethnicities of Gujarati and Marathi […]

Changing colors: a glance at identity group voting in Texas, Utah and Iowa

Posted on Posted in Alessandro Fava, Americas, Articles, International Politics, Joel Martinsson, Pax et Bellum Views, Sofia Jarvis

Originally published November 6, 2016 Authors: Alessandro Fava, Joel Martinsson and Sofia Jarvis* The 2012 Election was with American measurements a devastating loss for the Republican Party and its nominee Mitt Romney. In the wake of Romney’s failed presidential bid the Republican party presented an evaluation of what went wrong, labelling it “The Growth and […]