With great power comes great responsibility: A report from the frontier of armed conflict forecasting

Posted on Posted in Analysis, Civil Wars, Global, International Politics, Lovisa Mickelsson, Pax et Bellum Views, Remco Jansen

Authors: Remco Bastiaan Jansen and Lovisa Mickelsson*   Forecasting violent political crises such as the devastating resource wars of the 1990s or the ongoing conflict in Syria is a dream to researchers and policy-makers. What if we could indeed anticipate these crises; could we save people from the horrors of war? Can data help bring […]

How to Define Violence in Aleppo?

Posted on Posted in Analysis, Civil Wars, Middle East and North Africa, Pax et Bellum Views, Violence against Civilians

Authors: Jacob Agee, Jason Giannakis and Timo Leimeister The Mass Violence Awareness Initiative (MVAI) is a non-Governmental Organization which is based in Uppsala, Sweden. It seeks to increase public awareness about incidents of past, current and possible upcoming mass violence, genocide and related phenomena around the world.   There is understandably much use of the term […]

Could Brexit summon the ghosts of the Troubles?

Posted on Posted in Alessandro Fava, Civil Wars, Europe, International Politics, Opinions, Pax et Bellum Views

Author: Alessandro Fava Brexit will be one of the most important political events in Europe after the end of the Cold War. The changes for the United Kingdom and the European Union will be massive. Moreover, the United Kingdom will also face challenges from the inside coming from the peripheral regions that voted “Remain”. Northern […]

A Dream of Ruling for A Billion Years Cut Short at 22 Years

Posted on Posted in Civil Wars, International Politics, Maria Osula, Opinions, Pax et Bellum Views, Sub-Saharan Africa

Author: Maria Osula On December 1, 2016, the people of The Gambia went to the polls to exercise their constitutional right to vote resulting in the end of President Yahya Jammeh’s 22-year authoritarian regime. What was uncommon of long serving African leaders was that Jammeh accepted defeat and agreed to step down creating space for […]

From regime change to authoritarian stability? The Trump presidency and the Syrian Civil War

Posted on Posted in Americas, Analysis, Aron Woonink, Civil Wars, International Politics, Middle East and North Africa, Opinions, Pax et Bellum Views

Originally published December 17, 2016 Author: Aron Woonink* Many jars of ink have been spilt on Donald Trump’s election last month. Every spectator, whether they’re journalists, policymakers or ordinary citizens, wonders what this remarkable figure’s victory will mean for the US and the rest of the world. Will Muslims be banned from entering the US? […]

Why the Assad regime barrel-bombs its own civilians

Posted on Posted in Analysis, Civil Wars, Middle East and North Africa, Pax et Bellum Views, Rik Rutten, Violence against Civilians

Originally published December 5, 2016 Author: Rik Rutten* Bombing civilians without distinguishing supporters and opponents from bystanders is said to be ineffective, or even counterproductive. Then why have air raids become such a hallmark feature of the military strategy of the Assad government in the Syrian civil war? A look at the geography of violence shows: […]

What causes rebel recruitment? Into the mind of a former jihadist

Posted on Posted in Analysis, Barbara Magalhães Teixeira, Civil Wars, Middle East and North Africa, Pax et Bellum Views, Rebel Recruitment

Originally published November 21, 2016 Author:  Barbara Magalhães Teixeira* The TED Talk of Manwar Ali, filmed in April 2016, touches upon a central subject in Peace and Conflict Research: rebel recruitment. He is a former jihadist that shares his experience of joining a rebel group and risking his life for a cause. Through his testimony, […]